Sociologist Fenggang Yang has projected that China could become home to the world’s largest Christian population by 2030.
According to Yang’s research, continued growth in Christianity could see China’s Christian population reach more than 200 million by 2030, potentially surpassing the Christian populations of other countries.
Yang’s projection is based on historical patterns of Christian growth in China. In one of his projections, he estimated that China could have more than 224 million Protestant Christians by 2030 if an average annual growth rate of 7 percent continued. When Catholics are included, he argued that China could become the country with the largest Christian population in the world.
The projection has attracted significant attention because China has a large population and Christianity has experienced substantial growth since the middle of the twentieth century. Yang has argued that the growth of Christianity in China represents a major religious transformation with potential implications for global Christianity.
However, the projection remains debated. More recent research has questioned whether Christianity is still growing in China at the pace assumed in Yang’s model, meaning the 2030 prediction should be understood as a projection based on particular growth assumptions rather than a certainty.
Yang’s prediction nevertheless continues to generate discussions about the future of Christianity in China and the possibility of China becoming one of the most significant centers of global Christianity.